000
FXUS64 KBMX 071113
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
530 AM CST SAT NOV 7 2009

.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

.DISCUSSION...

A NICE WEEKEND ON TAP FOR ALABAMA FOR A CHANGE WITH NO RAIN EXPECTED.
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH SUNDAY AS LOW LEVEL WINDS TAKE ON A
MORE SOUTHEAST COMPONENT AND BRING IN HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS. ALL
EYES WILL BE ON THE TROPICS AS TROPICAL STORM IDA TRACKS NORTHWARD
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT LIKELY DIRECTLY
IMPACT CENTRAL ALABAMA...BUT MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL
INTERACT WITH SHORT WAVE TROF MOVING TOWARDS LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
WITH REGARD TO TIMING AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN GLOBAL MODELS
GFSGEMECMWF AND THE REGIONAL NAM MODEL. GLOBAL MODELS ARE MUCH
MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH SOME FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT
TOTALS DURING THE MONDAY-TUESDAY TIME FRAME. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A
MORE PROGRESSIVE MOVEMENT FOR T.S. IDA AS IT MERGES WITH SHORT WAVE
TROF. THE NAM MODEL KEEPS IDA OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND
EVEN SHOWS IT SHIFTING WESTWARD ON TUESDAY. THE MOST LIKELY
SCENARIO IS FOR IDA AND ITS ASSOCIATED DEEPER MOISTURE TO GET
PICKED UP BY ADVANCING SHORT WAVE TROF...AND WILL KEEP HIGH RAIN
CHANCES IN FOR THE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY TIME FRAME. GRADIENT
WINDS ON NORTH SIDE OF IDA COULD BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS TO
SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

REMNANTS OF IDA SHOULD SHOULD PULL EAST OF ALABAMA TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS MOVING IN BY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROF COULD PICK UP JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE FOR SOME SMALL RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

58/ROSE

.AVIATION...12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

PATCHY FOG AT TCL SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 1300Z.  VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AREA WIDE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  WIND WILL BE FROM THE
EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 5 KNOTS OR LESS.

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.